This is Turov on Timing for Monday, September 18, 2006.
The SPX advanced 3.59 points Friday to close at 1319.87. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8936.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 860.94 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.38 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.
Despite the market’s being within a stone’s throw of a multi-year high, there were only 109 new highs on the NYSE Friday. Also, the LOWEST reading for TRIN all last week was a neutral .94, and three of the five days saw TRIN above 1.00; that’s definitely a negative. MACD negative divergence is obvious. Despite a higher close Friday, the market closed lower than where it opened. The Dow Utilities Index has been consistently lower this month despite a flat bond market. The stock market is clearly topping. The only unknown is exactly when the precise top will be. However, were we to see a new high in the SPX, my opinion is that it would most likely be short lived and would attract selling.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short into strength at SPX 1329. If you go short, use a tight 5 point stop on your position, as new highs sometimes can attract lots of short covering. I don’t expect that to happen here, but because of the risk, do limit yourself to this relatively small position, and do use this relatively tight stop.
PUBLICATION NOTICE: I WILL BE IN TRAVELING ALL THIS WEEK, AND ANY GIVEN DAY’S MESSAGE MAY BE DELAYED. I DON’T EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE, BUT IT “MAY”. IN THE VERY UNLIKELY EVENT THAT I AM UNABLE TO TRANSMIT A MESSAGE PRIOR TO THE OPENING ON ANY DAY, MAINTAIN ANY POSITION AND STOP UNTIL THE SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY TO THE CONTRARY.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I expect to email you again well before the opening of Tuesday’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.