The SPX advanced 4.57 points Friday to close at 1687.99. TOT daily traders came into the session 100% long and went an additional 200% long at SPX 1686. We took our profit on the combined position on the SPX 1687.99 close and went into the weekend flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13533.66 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1229.06 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.01 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 16, 2013) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. I said at the end of August, with the SPX at 1633, “I expect to see SPX 1700 again before 1600, but once that has occurred, I expect to see 1600 before 1800.” Because of the US-Russia weekend agreement on Syrian chemical weapons and the Summers withdrawal, SPX 1700 is likely to be reached this morning. However, if the market (as measured by ETFs and futures) is unable to advance from the opening, then there is a good chance of the Intermediate Term Model reversing direction tonight. But, that will not be clear until we see how the market acts during the full trading session today.
The chemical weapons agreement between the United States and Russia late Friday, plus the surprise Summers Chairmanship consideration withdrawal over the weekend have caused SPX futures to rise overnight by about 1%.
I thought that the Syrian deal was more important, and I wrote the following: I don’t expect the gains to hold as traders begin to realize that Assad will procrastinate turning over his weapons (which news reports say he has already started to hide), the Russians will not seriously pressure him, and President Obama will begin to look ineffectual once again as he vainly seeks a solution to a problem that has no solution.
However, Reuters opines that the Summers news is more significant. Here’s what they had to say: “U.S. stock futures advanced…late Sunday after Lawrence Summers withdrew his candidacy for chairman of the Federal Reserve, as investors bet his exit could mean a slower tapering of monetary stimulus by the U.S. central bank… Of the two leading candidates for the Fed chairmanship, Summers was widely regarded as more eager to taper the Fed’s $85 million a month bond-buying program. Janet Yellen, the Fed’s current vice chair and the other leading candidate, has been more widely perceived by investors as favoring a more gradual easing of stimulus.”
My feeling on this perspective is this: Considering that Yellen was more favored by most than Summers to begin with, if President Obama had wanted Yellen, he would have already chosen her. A dark horse candidate now becomes the odds-on favorite, I would think.
In any event, with the SPX at about 1700, short seems more attractive than long, since neither the Syrian story nor the Summers story seems to have the potential for improvement; quite the contrary. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short on a stop 2 points below the 9:35 a.m. price. Once short, I’ll update with a further advisory within 15 minutes. Alternatively, if the market keeps rising without allowing a short position by 11 a.m., I’ll update by 11:15.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2013 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.