This is Turov on Timing for Monday, October 26, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 13.31 points Friday to close at 1079.60. TOT daily traders took a 5 point scalping loss on 3 units. For the week as a whole, we had a modest loss, coming after four consecutive winning weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11170.75 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 620.67 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.00 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2010 or 2011. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish but weakening.
The big selloff on Friday, after the great early day earnings reports, obviously has bearish implications.
Overnight futures have bounced around in a narrow range, sometimes up and sometimes down. I have no strong indications about how today’s NYSE opening might play out.
However, regardless what happens in the early going today, a rally this afternoon is about a 60% probability – good enough odds to trade. I will update no later than 11 a.m. with a specific recommendation.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
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