This is Turov on Timing for Monday, October 17, 2011.
The SPX advanced 20.92 points Friday to close at 1224.58. TOT daily traders came into the session 400% short and took a 1% loss on the position (x4). We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12542.03 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 765.65 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 16.38 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The failure of the market to decline on Friday brought in lots of short covering as the weekend drew near. The SPX is close to serious (conventionally defined) technical resistance, and I would expect to see it pull back to close to the 1200 level before any further attempt to breach that resistance.
Futures are up overnight, but I don’t expect them to hold. Stand aside for the time being, and I will update again no later than 11 a.m.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update in a few hours.
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