I’m a bit angry – and I’m going to tell you why after the usual commentary. Please read what I have to say and feel free to respond.
The SPX advanced 10.64 points Friday to close at 1703.20. After having logged more than a 90 point cumulative profit on Thursday, TOT daily traders stayed on the sidelines Friday. While Intermediate Term traders remain long, TOT daily traders are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13541.32 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1244.27 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.88 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 7, 2013) The news-neutral Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. The purely statistical and news-neutral odds are that the recent decline from the highs is about over, and the market will challenge those highs sooner rather than later. However, it is obvious that current uncertainty regarding the hot air in Washington will continue to dominate the market until that uncertainty is resolved, one way or another.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at the first sign of weakness; i.e. SPX 1703 stop. If the SPX advances to 1706 before declining to 1703, raise your entry sell stop to SPX 1704. And for each further 2 point advance, raise your entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you go short, use a protective buy stop 10 points above your entry short level.
Shortly before the close Friday, it was obvious to me that the daily model would be bearish today. Furthermore, my Russell 2000 Index model would be bearish, and the other three index models – DJII, SPX, and NASDAQ – would be neutral. That’s good enough (with a daily model bearish signal) to warrant going short. All Turov Investment Group Inc. Nationwide clients went 100% short the Russell 2000 Index fund on Friday’s close (since Nationwide does not have a 2x inverse Russell fund), Rydex Program B and R clients went 200% short the Russell 2000 Index fund on Friday’s close, Rydex Program D clients went 200% short the NASDAQ 100 Index fund on Friday’s close, and Rydex Program A clients went 100% into the money market fund on Friday’s close. Considering that nothing important happened in Washington over the weekend, I expect these trades to be nicely profitable today.
Now, I’m going to give you more insight into why I traded as I did for clients on Friday, and then I’m going to tell you why I’m a bit angry.
Aside from the bearish model reading I had by 3:40 p.m. Friday, with the market up so strongly on Thursday and Friday I figured that if there was a deal in Washington over the weekend, the market might pop higher on the opening today, but then it would likely sell off, since so much expectation was already built in. Also, there has been some nasty negative MACD divergence in many stocks. Also, ETF volume on Friday was a warning. Specifically, the Spiders (SPY) had significantly reduced volume Friday compared to Thursday, yet still managed to advance smartly – but to a technical resistance area. Historically, that has led to profit taking on the next market day. Also, returning to the Washington theme, if a deal is going to get done – and I have no unique opinion there – I thought (and think) it will happen at the very last moment, not several days before the deadline. So that’s why I went short on Friday’s close.
And what did I communicate to Turov on Overnight Possibility subscribers? Well, nothing. And that’s because despite so many people saying they wanted a pre-close email service, only three people actually subscribed! That’s right, three!
On my webpage, I state my purpose as follows: “Twenty years ago, I put a suit in my closet with all the pockets cut out as a daily reminder that on the day I wear my last suit, I won’t be taking anything with me. The only value my life will have had will be what I have accomplished for others. Well, I’m no doctor; I can’t save lives. I’m no minister; I can’t save souls. But I do know the stock market inside and out, and if I can help people improve their financial condition – so that they can better provide for their children’s education, their retirement, their health, and their charitable contributions and legacies, then I will have served my purpose as best as I know how. And while I can’t give you any performance guarantees, I can and do give you my solemn promise that I will try to fulfill that purpose to the best of my ability until I wear that last suit.” That’s not just a clever sound bite; that’s the truth. However, just like the dedicated physician who saves lives because he cares, yet still wants to get paid for his time and expertise, I like to use my time economically productively also. I figured if I got a mere ten subscribers at $970 through the end of 2014, I’d receive about $970 x about 94% after merchant fees, times ten, or about $9118. For that, I’d have to provide an email for about 22 trading days a month, times 15 month, or about 330 emails. Well, $9118 divided by 330 equals about $27.63 per daily email to me, and 1/10 of that or $2.76 per subscriber. Gee – sorry I wanted so much…. And candidly, I’m angry that the modest goal I had was not met, and therefore I was not able to completely comply with my aforementioned stated goal.
But I ask you. How much would just Friday’s email ALONE have been worth to you, had it existed. $1000? $3000? $997 doesn’t seem like so much any more, does it?
In any event, here’s a last chance offer. If YOU would pay $997 for TOP through the end of 2014 (I’m not going to offer the renewable monthly price), by either check or Paypal, email me TODAY. Don’t send money just yet. If ten people want the service, then I’ll offer it, even though the $2.76 fee per day seems absurdly paltry; I simply want to help people, and if ten of you want such a service, I’ll offer it.
That’s it for now. Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later in today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2013 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.