This is Turov on Timing for Monday, October 10, 2011.
The SPX declined 9.51 points Friday to close at 1155.46. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12550.46 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 696.53 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.02 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
The market took a swift and sharp turn to the downside late Friday afternoon which wrecked havoc on my expectations for today. I had expected a strong close Friday to lead to a weak opening today, but instead we had a weak close Friday which will likely lead to a strong opening today.
The daily model, which I had expected to be bearish today is, instead, neutral. It will be interesting, to say the least, to see if the Merkel-induced futures advance overnight will hold during the day session. Candidly, I don’t have an opinion, and my models are not of any help in that regard. We will stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.