This is Turov on Timing for Monday, October 1, 2007.
The October monthly issue of Turov on Timing will be attached to tomorrow’s daily email.
The SPX declined 4.63 points Friday to close at 1526.75. TOT daily traders were stopped out of our trades for losses. Nevertheless, the week as a whole was profitable. Indeed, for the third quarter, TOT daily traders outperformed the SPX in 10 of the quarter’s 13 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9825.96 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1067.82 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.20 to one.
Bookkeeping: On September 12, the SPX was up 0.07 points. I correctly reported it, but I entered minus 0.07 in the Excel spreadsheet that I use to calculate the previous paragraph. So, the cumulative SPX number since September 13 has been understated by 0.14. It has been corrected today.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years. I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX and the DJII). I further believe the cyclical bull market that probably ended in July will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.
The intermediate term model has upticked to bullish after only a fortnight in bearish territory. The ability of the SPX to decline only 2 points since that bearish reading is, in and of itself, bullish. Repeating, THE INTERMEDIATE MODEL IS NOW BULLISH.
The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long at the market. Use a 10 point protective sell stop on your position. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.