The SPX advanced 8.63 points Friday to close at 2213.35. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. Because of a very profitable Monday (November 21), our TOT daily trader recommendations slightly outperformed the SPX for the week as a whole.
In the coming week, expect the market to open weakly and then pick up strength mid-week. All Turov Investment Group managed accounts that permit short selling went 200% short on Friday’s close, and in our sister publication, Turov on Overnight Possibilities, we recommended going short the “Diamonds,” the Dow ETF (“DIA”) on Friday’s close.
In the 21st Century, only twice has the SPX advanced on all three sessions prior to the Thanksgiving holiday and the day after the holiday (such as was the case this past week). In both cases, the SPX declined the following Monday. Those times were the Monday of the last week of 2005 (not 2006 as was implied in Friday’s message) when the SPX declined 10.79 points on Monday, and the Monday of the last week of 2012 when the SPX declined 2.86 points on Monday. Please note that while statistics like this are of some interest, they are not of much statistical value since a “universe” of two events is a very small universe indeed, with little (or nil) predictive value.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16946.53 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1754.42 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.66 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.66 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 18, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish, although market leadership rotation will continue to be more pronounced than usual.
GOLD: The lack of follow-through on Friday to Wednesday’s break of technical support indicates a paucity of further downside pressure, and our Gold model has reversed to bullish.
Unrelated to the comments in the fourth paragraph of this report, the SPX-based daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 2212 stop. If the SPX advances to 2216 before declining to 2212, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2114, and for each additional 2 point advance, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short use a 1% protective buy stop on the position. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into Tuesday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.