This is Turov on Timing for Monday, November 22, 2010.
Another good day for the home team as the SPX advanced 3.04 points Friday to close at 1199.73. TOT daily traders had trading profits both on the short side and then on the long side. TOT daily traders came into the session 300% short from SPX 1196.69 and then covered the short at SPX 1194.10. We then went 300% long at SPX 1194.10 and took our profit on the SPX 1199.73 close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12053.95 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 740.80 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 16.27 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The news-neutral daily model is dead-neutral today, and the market will undoubtedly go in the direction of the news. That news right now is bullish – primarily Ireland’s agreement over the weekend to accept charity from the EU and IMF and Apple Computer’s decision to make an iPhone for Verizon. As a result, futures are up about ½% in overnight trading, and in the absence of additional news, the odds are that the market will open this morning about ½% higher. Whether that gain will hold or not is anyone’s guess. Considering the neutral daily model reading, and considering we don’t know what additional news will come out today (if we did, it would be called “the olds” instead of “the news”), we will stand aside today.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Tuesday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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