This is Turov on Timing for Monday, November 20, 2006.
The SPX advanced 1.44 point Friday to close at 1401.20. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8887.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 942.27 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.43 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
The news headlines notwithstanding, the biggest bullish factor facing the market right now is the historically strong market history prior to Thanksgiving. And the news headlines notwithstanding, the biggest bearish factor facing the market right now is the strong expectation of that historical fact’s continuation, and the risk of selling pressure if the market doesn’t play the tune as expected.
The daily model, primarily because of the Thanksgiving historical factor, is modestly bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go a modest 200% long at the first sign of strength – specifically at SPX 1402 stop. If you go long, use a 10 point protective sell stop. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.
IN THE EVENT THAT YOU GO LONG AND ARE NOT STOPPED OUT, THE DAILY MODEL IS CERTAIN TO BE BULLISH AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AND WE WILL STAY WITH THE SAME POSITION AND THE SAME STOP THEN. IF THAT IS THE CASE, THERE WILL BE NO ISSUE OF TUROV ON TIMING TOMORROW. IF THAT IS NOT THE CASE (I.E., IF YOU ARE NOT LONG ON MONDAY’S CLOSE), THEN THERE WILL BE AN ISSUE OF TUROV ON TIMING TOMORROW.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 or 48 hours, depending on the circumstances just described.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.