This is Turov on Timing for Monday, November 19, 2012.
The good news is that the daily model was correct in its bullishness this past Friday. The good news is that the Intermediate Term Model was correct in its bullishness this past Friday. The good news is that all TIG managed accounts were 2x long this past Friday. The bad news is that TOT daily traders were stopped out near the low for the day this past Friday as the SPX broke our stop for less than one minute. Long term TOT readers know how much I dislike stops so I won’t belabor the point again.
For the session, the SPX advanced 6.55 points Friday to close at 1359.87.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13429.49 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 900.94 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.91 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model, which had been bearish from November 6 through November 14, gaining 61.77 points as the SPX dropped from 1317.26 to 1355.49, turned bullish Thursday and that’s where it remains.
The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400 long at SPX 1361 stop. Once long, use a protective sell stop at SPX 1347.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during the trading session today unless we go long and are subsequently stopped out prior to the close.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.