This is Turov on Timing for Monday, May 9, 2011.
The SPX advanced 5.10 points Friday to close at 1340.20. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12387.52 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 881.27 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.06 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
The probability is that the market will be up in the morning and then move lower as the day progresses. However, with overnight futures up ½% as I write this, that could well be the entire upside move. So I wouldn’t want to go long. A short in mid morning might be worthwhile, but I would want to review extant data. So, stand aside for now.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update between 10:45 and 10:55 a.m. – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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