The SPX declined 6.59 points Friday to close at 1107.30. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8310.14 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 648.37 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long model remains neutral. However, it is close to weakening to bearish, but it’s not there yet. The short term model has been bearish for several weeks, and it remains so.
Even though the first trading session of May has been consistently up in recent years, the daily model is slightly bearish today. However, the market is oversold on a very short term basis, Mondays have been up in four of the past five weeks, there is that first of May positive bias, and the miniscule size of the bearish reading, in sum, provide adequate reasons for standing aside until we get a better signal than the weak one that we have today. Expect a sluggish rally in the early going, followed by more selling later in the day, although a meltdown seems unlikely.
I think the obscene (in the really proper use of the word) Iraq photos story is far from over, and it could have some nasty implications for the market. Judging by overnight futures which are up just a tad, the market doesn’t yet agree with my opinion, but I think that will change. If I were an Iraqi who has been giving the Americans the benefit of the doubt, the publication of those photos would have removed that benefit. The road ahead just got a lot harder, Bush’s re-election just got a lot more iffy, and that’s something the market won’t like.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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