This is Turov on Timing for Monday, May 23, 2011.
The SPX declined 10.33 points Friday to close at 1333.27. TOT daily traders had a good session, going 400% short on the opening and taking profits on the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12462.49 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 874.34 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.25 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model has downticked from bullish to bearish; this time with a stronger bearish reading than last time. Repeating, the Intermediate Term Model is bearish.
The daily model is also bearish today. However, overnight futures are trading at an almost 1% discount to fair value, and I don’t want to take a new short position into that much of a decline. We will stand aside and await a better trading opportunity.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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