This is Turov on Timing for Monday, May 16, 2011.
A good day for the home team as the SPX declined 10.88 points Friday to close at 1337.77. TOT daily traders went 400% short at SPX 1347.77 and covered the short precisely 10 points lower at SPX 1337.77, on the close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12405.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 878.84 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.12 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
After some continuation softness this morning, I expect to see the market move higher today, although it is by no means a certainty. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1340 stop. If the SPX declines to 1336 before reaching 1340 (as I expect it to), lower your entry buy stop to SPX 1338 stop. And for each additional 2 point decline in the SPX, lower your entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. If the position has not been established by 10:30 a.m., cancel the recommendation and stay on the sidelines.
If and when you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again between 10:45 and 11:00 a.m.
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