This is Turov on Timing for Monday, May 11, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 21.84 points Friday to close at 929.23. TOT daily traders went 400% short near the high of the day on Thursday at SPX 927 and covered the short on the opening Friday at SPX 909.03.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11050.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 470.30 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 23.50 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although after an expected May decline, a resumption of the recent advance appears likely.
The daily model is bearish today. If the market can move lower after the opening during the first hour or so, the selling should accelerate as the day progresses. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 927 stop or SPX 937 limit, whichever comes first. Once you go short, use a 10 point protective buy stop on the position. If the SPX then declines 10 points from your entry level, lower the stop to a breakeven. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into Tuesday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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