The SPX declined 15.29 points Friday to close at 1098.70. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session..
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8280.14 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 639.77 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The damage to market internals on Friday was substantial enough to downtick the long model from neutral to bearish.
On April 13’s message, with the SPX at 1145, I said, “There is a very good chance that the market is in a topping mode that may take a week or two to complete, but the odds favor SPX 1100 much sooner than SPX 1200.” That first objective has been met, and still more downside seems probable as the short term model remains bearish.
Despite a brief peek into positive territory early in Friday’s session, overall it was a bleak day for the bulls as breadth was horrid, yet capitulation was absent. In the absence of a surprise, it is quite possible that the bear market of the first decade of the 21st century has entered its second down leg.
The directional component of the daily model is bearish today, and the risk component, while quite high, is not high enough to invalidate the directional component’s signal. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1102 limit or at SPX 1097 stop. If you go short, use a protective buy stop at SPX 1114. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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