This is Turov on Timing for Monday, March 31, 2008.
PLEASE NOTE: I AM TAKING A RARE TRIP OUT OF INTERNET RANGE FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 4 THROUGH APRIL 11 AND TUROV ON TIMING WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED FOR THIS SIX DAY PERIOD. WE WILL “OFFICIALLY” BE ON THE SIDELINES FOR THIS PERIOD. ALL MANAGED ACCOUNTS WILL BE IN A MONEY MARKET FUND FOR THESE SIX TRADE DAYS, AS WELL. TOT will be published on April 1, 2, 3, and 4, and the subsequent issue will be April 14.
Another good day for the home team as the SPX declined 10.54 points Friday to close at 1315.22. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1324.75 and have carried the position over the weekend and into today.
Over the past 39 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 25 times and underperformed 14 times. That’s a ratio of 1.8 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10270.95 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 856.29 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.99 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model has downticked from bullish to neutral. For the next several weeks, I envision a lot of volatility with very little net market movement. However, internal market indicators during this time should provide a wealth of information in determining the most likely market direction after this expected period of sideways movement. Repeating, THE INTERMEDIATE TERM MODEL IS NOW NEUTRAL.
I expect a truncated session today. The most probable pattern for the market today would be selling in the morning, followed by a partial recovery rally later in the session. Alternatively, if the market is able to maintain strength in the early going, then expect weakness later in the session. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short. Maintain the position without a stop. I will have an intraday update between 10:45 and 11:00 a.m. or sooner, if the market (unexpectedly) stages a big rally.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 12 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.