The SPX declined 1.98 points Friday to close at 2343.98. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17161.93 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1885.05 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.10 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.10 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk. It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.
On Friday afternoon’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities, I said, “the SPX-based daily model is bearish for the next trading day BUT the political unknown makes me want to override it. I would not go against the model, but occasionally I do override it.” And all TIG managed accounts that permit inverse funds went between 50% and 100% into the Russell 2000 inverse fund since the Russell 2000 potential measured far weaker than my expectations for the bigger capitalization indices.
The weekend news put a much more bearish spin on the failure of the health care bill than did the media on Friday, and hence, most indices are quite weak in overnight trading. For example, at this writing, the SPX index is down about .7%, the Nasdaq index is down about .7% also, the Dow Jones Industrial index is down about .55% and the Russell index is down about 1.0%. How much the market will fall today OR whether the overnight decline is all of it is undetermined. Had I had a crystal ball to see the weekend news on Friday I certainly would not have overridden the bearish daily model, but without such a crystal ball, the decision was probably the right one, albeit perhaps too conservative. Monday morning quarterbacking is always tempting. Rather than shorting into obvious weakness, we will stand aside for the time being, but we may enter the fray later in the session.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.