This is Turov on Timing for Monday, March 17, 2008. Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
Before I got bronchitis last week, I was interviewed by RTT News for my comments about St. Patrick’s Day and the day before. Because of my illness, I was not able to post a link for that interview prior to today. To listen to the interview from this past Thursday, please go to:
The SPX declined 27.34 points Friday to close at 1288.14. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed all the pain.
Over the past 37 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 23 times and underperformed 14 times. That’s a ratio of 1.64 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10144.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 829.21 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 12.23 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish. Expect a washout today, followed by a solid advance in the absence of further substantive news jolts.
To say that the Bear Stearns news yesterday was shocking would be an understatement. I simply cannot recall a pure Wall Street story with more surprise to it.
The most likely probability is that the market will get creamed in the early going (Gee… How’s that for insight?!) and then recover pretty nicely. But the real weight on the market will come from those fearful at not having a clue from where or when the next shoE will drop.
I’d say the odds of the market closing higher at 4:00 p.m. than it is at 9:40 a.m. today is very high, but I’m not about to put out a recommendation until the market actually begins trading and I can get a sense of things. We are currently flat and on the sidelines, and we will stay there for the nonce. I will have an intraday update sometime this morning.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
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