This is Turov on Timing for Monday, June 8, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 2.37 points Friday to close at 940.09. TOT was correct in stating “I expect to see the market sell off in the early going and then rally as the day advances,” but stops and inexact intraday timing hurt us, and we had a loss on the session. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11018.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 481.16 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 22.90 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although after an expected interim decline, a resumption of the recent advance appears likely.
I’ll be on an airplane during most of the trading day today, so I won’t be able to follow the market as closely as I’d like. Nevertheless, the daily model is modestly negative today, and the NASDAQ model is forecasting a decline in the morning; no forecast for the afternoon is available yet. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 940 stop or SPX 946 limit, whichever comes first. If and when you go short, use a 10 point protective buy stop on the position, until 10:45. At 10:45, if the stop is more than 2 points away from the 10:45 price, lower the stop to 2 points above that price. If still short as we approach the close, cover the position on the close and go overnight flat.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2009 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.