The SPX advanced 4.24 points Friday to close at 1592.43. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1604.29 on Thursday and have held the position two overnights and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13600.49 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1133.50 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 12.00 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 6) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). Since February 12th, I’ve said that I expect the 2009-2013 cyclical bull market to end in “Spring 2013”. It is too soon to know whether the May 22nd intraday high of 1687.18 marks that end or not.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 6) Intermediate Term Model comment: The “wave” of trading that brought the market to new highs is unlike any pattern that has appeared during the 21st Century. It was unlike the blowoffs in either 2000 or 2007 or, for that matter, like anything else. To quote Art Cashin on CNBC in May: “This is a very different kind of market than we’ve ever seen.” The selloff since the May 22nd intraday high of 1687.18 does not negate those comments, but it is possible that the high of this bull market has already been seen.
In context of the above two paragraphs, my friend and chartist extraordinaire, Dave Weis (www.WeisOnWyckoff.com) , published the following chart in his commentary today:
And he commented upon it as follows:
“This year’s high in the S&P looks like a major extremity. I say this because, unlike other highs within the up-move from the 2009 low, this one reached the top of the major up-channel. In addition, this year’s high is a potential upthrust of both the 2000 and 2007 highs. I will be surprised if any nearby S&P contract rallies above 1650 during the rest of this year.”
As to the short term situation, from one perspective, Friday’s tiny advance following Thursday’s big decline was pathetic. From another perspective, considering the heavy selling on Friday, that the market closed in positive territory at all was impressive. It probably would have done considerably better had it not been for the big selloff in Oracle and the resultant decline in the NASDAQ indices.
The daily model is bullish today, although I expect to see weakness on the opening. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long from SPX 1604.29. Futures are currently forecasting an opening, basis the cash index, of about 1588. I would not like to see the market move much below that, so use a protective sell stop on the position of SPX 1586.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again no later than 11:00 a.m. today.
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