This is Turov on Timing for Monday, June 22, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 2.86 points Friday to close at 921.23. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11106.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 462.30 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 24.02 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although I think we should see some improvement there by Independence Day or thereabouts – especially if this market can sell off by 40-50 SPX points.
Today’s daily model would be bullish were today not the Monday after options expiration, but when that is factored in, the daily model is merely neutral. If we see a controlled selloff in the early going, then we could see a recovery later on, but for the time being, standing aside is the wisest course. If I see a buying opportunity in late morning, I’ll issue an intraday update; otherwise not.
Tanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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