This is Turov on Timing for Monday, June 21, 2010.
The SPX advanced 1.48 points Friday to close at 1117.51. TOT daily traders took a tiny loss on a short position and are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12048.98 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 658.58 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.30 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then) but the current cyclical bull market probably has further to go before topping out, most likely in 2012, but not necessarily at significantly higher levels than at present.
The ability of the market to avoid selling off after the big rally this past Tuesday that brought the SPX above significant prior resistance, plus other internal factors, has upticked the Intermediate Term Model from bearish to bullish. Repeating, the Intermediate Term Model is now bullish.
One negative for the very short term is that historically, the week after June options expiration has tended to by exceedingly weak. Nevertheless, I doubt we’ll see the market fall below 1100 this year again, and a push towards 1200 is likely – albeit slow and labored.
The daily model is neutral today, with internal indicators very much in balance. The weekend news about the Chinese yuan has caused a spike in futures, and it will be interesting, to say the least, to see whether that spike can hold throughout the day today. If it can, that would be a solid confirmation of the Intermediate Term Model uptick. But for the nonce, let’s stand aside and be interested observers, rather than at-risk participants
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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