The SPX declined 6.77 points Friday to close at 2071.22. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16698.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1612.29 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.36 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.36 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 20, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. Today (Monday) will probably see the market at the high for the week.
Our sister publication’s, Friday afternoon’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities, recommended buying the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the QQQ, at the market on Friday’s close. I indicated that the odds of the Nasdaq 100 advancing today were 65:35. And I said, “The directional component of the daily model will probably be bullish for Monday, despite a bearish Intermediate Term Model.” As I write this, SPX futures are up 22 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 45 points. In such an environment, it seems disingenuous to recommend a long position for TOT SPX-based daily traders, since the huge jump in overnight futures would make any cash-based recommendation misleading. So we will “officially” stand aside, but Turov on Overnight Possibilities subscribes should continue to hold long. (A Turov on Overnight Possibilities’ subscription is $997 per annum, prorated through the end of the year for any new subscribers. So a subscription through year-end 2016 would be $525, payable by check only by US subscribers; by US dollar check or international money order or PayPal only by foreign subscribers. If paying by check or money order, please mail to Turov Investment Group; PO Box 1250; La Jolla, CA 92038; if paying by PayPal, send to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com . Turov on Overnight Possibilities is available only to Turov on Timing subscribers, and therefore there is no link for Turov on Overnight Possibilities on the www.DanielTurov.com website. If you send a check or money order, please email InvestmentAdvice@aol.com that you have done so, and we will start your subscription immediately.)
The daily model is bullish today, but we are officially taking no position, for reasons explained in the preceding paragraph.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.