A bad day for the market, but a good day for the home team as the SPX declined 9.63 points Friday to close at 1626.73. TOT daily traders went 200% short on Thursday’s 1626.73 close and another 200% short on Friday’s 1635,52 open, and then took profits on Friday’s close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13636.07 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1167.80 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.68 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 6) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). Since February 12th, I’ve said that I expect the 2009-2013 cyclical bull market to end in “Spring 2013”. It is too soon to know whether the May 22nd intraday high of 1687.18 marks that end or not.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 6) Intermediate Term Model comment: The “wave” of trading that brought the market to new highs is unlike any pattern that has appeared during the 21st Century. It was unlike the blowoffs in either 2000 or 2007 or, for that matter, like anything else. To quote Art Cashin on CNBC in May: “This is a very different kind of market than we’ve ever seen.” The selloff since the May 22nd intraday high of 1687.18 does not negate those comments, but it is possible that the high of this bull market has already been seen.
In Friday’s 1:11 intraday update, I said, “The probability is that Monday will see the market rebound a little. The odds of such a rebound are very high, but the potential magnitude of such a rebound is small, assuming no significant news between today’s market close and then.”
Indeed, the daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at the market. Initially, use a ¾% protective sell stop on the position. If the SPX advances to 7 points above that stop, raise the stop to a breakeven.
If stopped out, the next TOT update will be in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
If not stopped out, and if the position is profitable, take your profit on the close, in which case the next TOT update will be in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
If not stopped out, and if the position is not profitable, the next TOT update will be shortly before the close – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2013 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.