This is Turov on Timing for Monday, June 15, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 1.32 point Friday to close at 946.21. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11038.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 487.28 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 22.65 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although after an expected interim decline, a resumption of the recent advance appears likely.
If the market had stayed lower on Friday, the odds for a bounce back this morning would be fairly high. But the market did not stay lower, and so we enter the day with a slight negative bias which is being confirmed by lower futures prices overnight. However, if morning weakness does not reverse itself, then the odds favor a sharper decline as the day progresses. Stand aside for now, and I’ll update again between 10:50 and 11 a.m.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
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