This is Turov on Timing for Monday, June 12, 2006.
The SPX declined 5.63 points Friday to close at 1252.30. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Last week, TOT daily traders recommendations lost 18 cumulative points, compared to an 35.92 point loss in the SPX. It was only the 2nd time out of the past 15 weeks in which the TOT daily traders recommendations were not profitable. And it was the 13th week of the past 15 in which the TOT daily traders recommendations outperformed the SPX.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8874.92 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 793.37 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish.
The daily model is bearish today, but if we sell off today, the odds are very high for an upside reversal tomorrow, perhaps a big one. But I’m disinclined to short a market that has been weak for awhile and is close to a rebound. However, I would be inclined to bottom fish today with a reasonably close stop, in light of the high probability that a selloff today would have reversal potential for tomorrow. TOT daily traders are therefore advised to go 200% long at SPX 1246 limit. Do not be more aggressive than that, either in terms of price or quantity. If you go long, use a protective sell stop at SPX 1237.50. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Despite the current short term model bullish signal, I still believe that the next BIG move will be down, and caution is still definitely appropriate.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
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