A good day for the home team as the SPX declined 9.64 points Friday to close at 1978.34. TOT daily traders came into the session 200% short, went another
200% short on the opening, and took profits on the close. TOT daily traders were profitable for the fifth consecutive week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 14059.50 cumulative SPX points, compared
to a gain of 1519.41 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.25 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model
fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of 9.25 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline. On a day
the market advances it will therefore almost always decline, and on a day the market declines it will almost always advance.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since
January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the
primary bear market is over, some years in the future (best guess: 2017 or 2018), at or below about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January
2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 23, 2014.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. Even as the market makes nominal new highs, serious
internal market divergences lend evidence to the probability that the bulls will soon be steers (although goring some ranchers in protest in the interim).
The table I presented on Friday’s pre-opening message is now complete. During the 21st Century, there had been only two other occasions, during the month of
July, where the SPX was down on Monday and then up on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, as (was) the case (last) week. The (albeit, limited) history on
Friday has not been kind. Here are the details (updated for this past Friday):
Dates Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
July 25-29, 2005 -4.65 2.13 5.63 6.93 -9.54
July 16-20, 2012 -3.14 10.03 9.11 3.73 -13.85
July 21-25, 2014 -4.59 9.90 3.48 0.97 -9.64
But Friday is now history, and the daily model is modestly bullish today although risk is high. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1981
stop. If the SPX declines to 1976 before reaching 1981, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 1978. And for each 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an
equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a tighter than usual ½% sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later in today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2014 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and
advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be
reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be
directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but
rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and
may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at
a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern.
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