The SPX declined 0.91 point Friday to close at 2472.54. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed absolutely nothing. Although this past Wednesday saw a decent advance in the SPX, the rest of the week saw a paltry 0.05 point SPX gain, with none of those gains closing with a change (up or down) of more than .06% (.0006 in decimal format, lest there be any confusion).
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17331.38 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2013.61 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.61 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.61 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
I expect to see the market move lower in the early going and then move higher as the day progresses. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2476 stop (a level I do not expect to see in the early morning). If the SPX declines to 2470 before reaching 2476 (which I do expect), lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2472. And for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.