The SPX advanced 2.89 points Friday to close at 1967.57. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 14030.93 cumulative SPX points, compared
to a gain of 1508.64 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.30 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model
fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of 9.30 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline. In an
advancing market it will therefore almost always decline, and in a declining market it will almost always advance.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since
January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the
primary bear market is over, some years in the future (best guess: 2017 or 2018), at or below about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January
2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 23, 2014.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. Even as the market makes nominal new highs, serious
internal market divergences lend evidence to the probability that the bulls will soon be steers (although goring some ranchers in protest in the interim).
In today’s BARRONS’s (page 15, column 2), Ned Davis research strategist, Tim Hayes is quoted saying that he sees uncomfortable similarities between today and
the rally preceding the October 1987 crash that wiped 22% from the stock market: a market that has gone five years without a 20% plunge, high valuations (the
S&P 500 traded at 18.9 times earnings then, and now) and sentiment that could be described as frothy. “People think the risk is contained at 10%. Maybe it
will be greater than that,” Hayes says.
After a brief continuation of Friday’s rally, I expect to see the market move lower today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1966. If
the SPX advances to 1970 before declining to 1966 (as I expect it will), raise the entry sell stop to SPX 1968. And for each additional 2 point advance,
raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
If still short as we approach the close, and if the SPX is above 1964.68, hold the short position overnight and into Tuesday. Otherwise, take your profit on
the close and go overnight flat.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2014 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and
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rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and
may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at
a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern.
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