The SPX advanced 32 points Friday to close at 2129.90. TOT daily traders chose not to speculate on the jobs report and were on the sidelines for the day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16764.35 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1670.97 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.03 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.03 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated today.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. While our most recent bearish call was clearly premature, primarily as a result of the extremely favorable jobs report, and while I do not expect a complete reversal of the market’s gain since this signal was generated, I do expect a partial reversal of the advance, leading to a buy signal from a lower price than the current price.
The SPX-based daily model is neutral today with neither bulls nor bears having the upper hand. My best guess is that we will see some strength in the early going, followed by weakness later in the session. But, in the absence of new news, I do not see either good odds to going short into than expected early day advance, nor much of a change for the day as a whole. TOT daily traders are advised to continue to stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again prior to the start of Tuesday’s trading – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.