This is Turov on Timing for Monday, January 30, 2012.
The SPX declined 2.11 points Friday to close at 1316.32. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 1319.30 and have held the position over the weekend and into today. The market was picking up nicely beginning about 90 minutes prior to the end of Friday’s session, but S&P’s late downgrade of brokerage firm, Jeffries and Co., took the wind out of the market’s sails and pushed stocks a bit lower into the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13091.58 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 857.39 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.27 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains neutral as seasonality and momentum are positive, but many indicators are overbought.
The daily model is neutral today, which is somewhat of a surprise. I had expected a bullish reading. TOT daily traders come into the session 200% long. Take your loss at the market and move to the sidelines for the balance of today’s session.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again six hours before the start of Tuesday’s trading session.
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