This is Turov on Timing for Monday, January 23, 2012.
The SPX advanced 0.88 points Friday to close at 1315.38. TOT daily traders had a breakeven on a trade and are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13039.80 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 856.45 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.23 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. The high for the winter (or close thereto) has likely been made.
The market rallied in the last few minutes of trading on Friday in what I look as a last-gasp for the advance. It is unfortunate that we were stopped out just before the close but we will attempt to reestablish the position today at the same price.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% short at SPX 1314 (i.e.; at the first sign of weakness). If the SPX advances to 1318 before declining to 1314, raise your entry sell stop to SPX 1316. And for each additional 2 point advance, raise your entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update sometime during the trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.