The SPX advanced 12.27 points Friday to close at 2810.30. TOT daily traders went 100% long on the 2802.60 opening and took profits on the 2810.30 close.
INFOMERCIAL: Friday was a perfect example of one of the two primary advantages and purposes of Turov on Overnight Possibilities (TOP). In Turov on Timing (TOT) I recommended going long at “SPX at 2800 stop,” and so TOT daily traders went long on the 2802.60 opening. In Thursday afternoon’s TOP, I recommended buying the S&P 500 ETF, the SPY, and holding it overnight and for the full day Friday. The SPY closed Thursday at 279.14. It gap opened Friday at 279.80 and closed at 280.14. The gap on Friday was .24%. Its close was up .45%. So slightly more than half of Friday’s gain was the gap. That is not unusual. Historically, more than half of the stock market’s gains have been gaps. In other words, the market advances more when it is closed than when it is open! TOP daily traders had a profit of .45% while TOT daily traders had a (still respectable) gain of .21% (.45 – .24). — In the early days of TOT, the TOT daily trader recommendations were precisely that – a daily trader recommendation with the stated daily recommendation to close each day’s position on that day’s close. I subsequently expanded the service to include specific recommendations as to what to do with the position once it had been taken. In 2015, as I considered expanding the service to cover many major market indices and structure it as a late afternoon service, I considered how much else I have to do between 3:30 Eastern time and the close, and concluded that it wasn’t worth my stress unless I priced the service higher. But I also concluded that many TOT subscribers didn’t need such intensive advice and wouldn’t pay for it. So rather than add it to TOT and raise TOT’s price, I created a new service, TOP, to accommodate more active traders while leaving the TOT price unchanged for less active ones who benefit from TOT. TOP is not for everyone, but for very active traders, it provides real value, IMHO, even though the advantage is not always as obvious as in the above example. TOP is available only to TOT subscribers, all subscriptions end on December 31 of the current year, and the subscription price is $997 per annum, prorated. So subscribing today would be [(365-21)/365]x997=$939. If you are interested, please email that amount to firstname.lastname@example.org through www.paypal.com OR mail a check for that amount to Turov Investment Group Inc.; 9062 Rowlett Ave.; San Diego, CA 92129 AND send me an email saying that you have done so, so that I can begin your subscription immediately.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17559.73 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2351.37 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 7.47 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +7.47 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated January 18, 2018) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish, primarily as a function of uninterrupted market momentum.
The daily model is slightly bullish today, but not enough to take an SPX position. We will stand aside and await better odds.
Our BOND model remains bearish.
Our GOLD model remains bullish, but it is weakening.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2018 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. Any subscriber who is found to be violating the proceeding by forwarding this e-mail to another person will have his or her subscription canceled without refund or compensation. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.