This is Turov on Timing for Monday, February 4, 2008.
The SPX advanced 16.87 points Friday to close at 1395.42. TOT daily traders came into the session 200% long and carried that position over the weekend and into today. I had expected “early morning softness” and I also expected my intraday model to show positive divergence on such softness, giving us the opportunity to increase the size of the long position. But no such divergence developed during the morning selloff, and so we merely held the position at its original size. By the way, the failure of the intraday model to show positive divergence on the morning selloff may well be the first sign that the rally off my intermediate term buy signal, which is now more than 4%, could be on its last leg.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 20 of the past 31 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10122.43 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 936.49 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.81 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish. The SPX has advanced 57 points, more than 4%, since the intermediate term model issued its “buy signal”. I would not be surprised if the total move stalled just slightly above current levels.
The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long. Continue to hold the position, and for the time being, use no stop on your long position; if I think a stop is warranted, I’ll update with an interim report.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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