The SPX advanced 23.59 points Friday to close at 1797.02. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1783.58 at 9:35 a.m. on Friday. Our 1% stop is at SPX 1801.42. We have carried the position over the weekend and into today. Maintain the position and the stop.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13824.00 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1338.09 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.33 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of 10.33 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline. In an advancing market it will therefore almost always decline, and in a declining market it will almost always advance.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 13, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future (best guess: 2017 or 2018), at or below about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000, after probably hitting new (temporary) highs in 2014. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President to have some very serious problems during his or her term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 7, 2014) The Intermediate Term Model is bullish. After a probable down day today (subject to the jobs report), expect the balance of February to be up.
(The addition of this paragraph is a POSSIBLE new part of the TOT service) For sophisticated professional traders who want a recommendation “the afternoon before” that effectively eliminates the consequences of pre-opening gaps occasionally faced by TOT readers, Turov Investment Group Inc. offers a sister service, Turov on Overnight Possibilities (TOP) that reviews the SPX (ETF=SPY), DJII (ETF=DIA), NDX (ETF=QQQ), and RUT (ETF=IWM) potential from the afternoon before’s close through the following day. It is usually transmitted to TOP subscribers at about 3:45 p.m., Eastern time. A one-month trial to TOP is available once per year to TOT subscribers only for $97. A one-year subscription is $997. The TOP recommendation Friday for an overnight trade into today was “Stand aside. The NDX (QQQ) edge is not big enough to warrant the risk since (a) the other indices are only 50:50 and (b) the NDX is likely to see most of the expected early weakness after the opening, not necessarily on the opening.”
I find the following data interesting – and a statement about the uncertain state of the current market:
Over the past 4 sessions, the ratio of advancing SPX sessions to declining ones is 2:2
Over the past 6 sessions, the ratio is 3:3
Over the past 8 sessions, the ratio is 4:4
Over the past 10 sessions, the ratio is 5:5
Over the past 14 sessions, the ratio is 7:7
Over the past 18 sessions, the ratio is 9:9
Over the past 22 sessions, the ratio is 11:11
Over the past 24 sessions, the ratio is 12:12
Over the past 32 sessions, the ratio is 16:16
Over the past 36 sessions, the ratio is 18:18
Over the past 38 sessions, the ratio is 19:19
The daily model is slightly bearish today, but not by much. However, my Nasdaq model suggests that if the NDX is down at 10:45, the balance of the day has an overwhelming probability of declining further. My SPX model shows no such predilection.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later in today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2014 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.