The SPX declined points 5.36 points Friday to close at 2642.22 in a day that saw the market fall precipitously before recovering more than ¾ of the decline. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17528.17 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2183.29 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.03 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.03 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish. The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now. There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining. I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).
In a report I sent out Friday afternoon at 3:26, I said, “the SPX-based daily model is likely to be bullish” on Monday, and overnight futures are indeed up sharply indicating that the SPX will indeed be strong today. If TOT daily traders can go 200% long at SPX 2650 or lower, do so. Otherwise, chasing the overnight futures seems too risky.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. Any subscriber who is found to be violating the proceeding by forwarding this e-mail to another person will have his or her subscription canceled without refund or compensation. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.