This is Turov on Timing for Monday, December 4, 2006.
THE DECEMBER MONTHLY ISSUE IS ATTACHED TO TODAY’S TUROV ON TIMING.
In an unusually volatile session, the SPX declined 3.92 points Friday to close at 1396.71. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. Bonds were again strong, advancing just under ½%.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8867.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 937.78 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.46 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
The directional component of the daily model is bearish today, but the risk component of the model is in the ‘excessive’ range, forcing the overall model into neutral and us to stay on the sidelines. There is a good chance we will see the daily model stay neutral for an unusually long time – perhaps as much as a week or two – while the excesses of the autumn rally are worked off – prior to what may be a more robust than usual end of December rally. But don’t bank on that just yet; we will make no recommendations to go long until the daily model ‘gives permission’. Please see additional commentary in today’s monthly TOT.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.