The SPX declined 3.96 points Friday to close at 2258.07. The SPX opened up about 4 points and closed the session about 4 points down on the day. My bullish index models were correct for the morning, and the bearish daily model was correct for the full day – and vice versa, of course! A good day to be on the sidelines – and we were.
It was a volatile – yet uneventful – week. The SPX was down a mere 1.26 points on the week, and TOT daily traders were up a mere 3.94 points. The outperformance of the SPX is of no particular consequence.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16922.57 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1799.14 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.41 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.41 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 15, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. The odds favor the market being modestly lower than it currently is as we approach Christmas. Whether the market can stage a continuation of the rally from Christmas through New Year’s is unclear at present.
The daily model is bullish today, and a modest advance is expected. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2259 stop. If the SPX declines to 2255 before advancing to 2259, lower the stop to SPX 2257, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
One final comment: The Electors representing Trump and Clinton are voting today. In order for Clinton to win, 12% of Trump’s electors would have to defect to Clinton. Not likely; be wary of news stories that don’t make sense.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later during today’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.