This is Turov on Timing for Monday, December 11, 2006.
The SPX advanced 2.55 points Friday to close at 1409.84 in an unimpressive session in which advancing and declining stocks on both the NYSE and NASDAQ were virtually even. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8862.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 950.91 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.32 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
The daily model is bearish today, although the risk of going short is just shy of the ‘excessive’ level. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1407 stop. If the SPX rises to 1414 before touching 1407, then raise the initiation sell stop level to SPX 1411. If you go short, use a 10 point protective buy stop. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
I expect the market to have a more volatile week than has been the case recently, and the odds favor the net result being to the downside, historical precedent for options and futures expiration week notwithstanding.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
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