This is Turov on Timing for Monday December 10, 2007.
Today is an interesting day. It’s my first father-in-law’s 101st birthday. His wife lived until almost 90. Yet their daughter – my first wife – died at the age of 42 from cancer. It dramatically shows the difference between the probabilities of big numbers versus the randomness of individual events. With longevity in my wife’s family (her father’s father lived to 102 and her mother’s sister lived to 105), the odds were that my wife would live a very long time. Yet, it didn’t work out that way. In the stock market, my work is based on probabilities. In the long run, the probabilities are that my recommendations will be profitable. Yet, in the short term, on a daily basis, virtually anything can happen. With a good system, we have very big odds of long term profits, but only marginally favorable odds of daily profits. Investors should never confuse the difference.
The SPX declined 2.68 points Friday to close at 1504.66. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 17 of the past 23 weeks although not during the past two.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10255.86 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1045.73 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.81 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish. The market has now rallied to an area where further gains are likely to be labored – or non-existent.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1504 stop or at SPX 1506 limit, whichever comes first. Use a protective buy stop at SPX 1516. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Side note: My bond model – not usually reported on in this message – has gotten to extremely bullish levels.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.