The SPX declined 5.41 points yesterday to close at 2476.83. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17306.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2017.90 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.58 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.58 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
The daily model is bearish today, but we may see some follow-through strength from Friday’s close before the market turns lower. TOT daily trader are advised go to 200% short at SPX 2475 stop or at SPX 2480 limit or at the market at 10:00, whichever of those three events occur first. Once short, use a protective buy stop at SPX 2506. If and when you have a 10 point profit on the position, lower the stop to a breakeven.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
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