The SPX declined 4.79 points Friday to close at 2103.84. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. All Turov Investment Group managed accounts were long the US Government Bond fund and had a profit on the session of a little over 1%.
TOT daily trader recommendations were profitable last week for 27th time in the past 34 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15873.32 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1644.91 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.65 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.65 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 15, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market (Yes, it’s still a cyclical bull market!) is most likely to end in 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). While I would not be surprised to see the DJII approach the 20,000 level by the time the bull market ends, I then expect to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude from there. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 28, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. While I am not sanguine about the health of the bull market, there is no evidence that the bulls have capitulated yet.
Today is the first trading day of August. While past performance (of anything) is not a guarantee of future performance, when the first trading day of August has fallen on a Monday, the day has performed well this Century. Specifically, as measured by the SPX:
2004 + 4.90
2005 + 1.17
2011 – 5.34 (but following a week of all five days being down)
The daily model is bullish today, but not overwhelmingly so. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2104 stop. If the SPX declines to 2100 before reaching 2104, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2102 and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.