The SPX declined 3.43 points Friday to close at 2169.04. TOT daily traders went 300% short on Thursday and covered it at a breakeven early Friday morning. We then went 300% short again at SPX 2183.76 at 10:45 a.m. and covered the short late in the session at SPX 2172.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16845.47 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1710.11 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.85 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.85 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated today.) Our most recent bearish call was clearly premature, and I do not expect a complete reversal of the market’s gain since this signal was generated; however we have seen at least a pause in the advance. I’ve been saying for a while, “If the market doesn’t crack very soon, then it might not crack at all.” The market has had three modest declines in a row, and for the week was down a modest 14.83 points, with most of the decline occurring on Wednesday. I wish I had a crystal ball to tell me whether this is the beginning of a “crack” or not, but I simply don’t know. While the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, the Model could reverse if the market doesn’t have a real “crack” soon.
The “theoretic” outlook for today is for a somewhat higher opening, followed by selling later in the day — sort of like Friday, but not nearly as dramatic. On the other hand, as I write this, futures are down a tad, putting the “theoretic” outlook for the morning in a modest amount of jeopardy, although not impacting my outlook for the afternoon.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at the market at 10:45 a.m. Basis the 10:45 a.m. price, use a 1% buy stop on the position, good for the balance of the day unless I issue an intraday update changing the stop.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.