This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 29, 2011.
The SPX advanced 17.53 points Friday to close at 1176.80, wiping out Thursday’s loss. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12564.18 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 717.87 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 17.50 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factor being the upcoming presidential election), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
Futures are up a little over 1% overnight, but the odds favor the market giving back some of those gains as the day session begins. However, that give-back is not likely to be intense, and when it is done, neither the bulls nor the bears will have any particular edge.
In summary, fading the opening (but not overstaying your welcome on the short side) will likely be the best trade of the day. However, with the risk component of the daily model in extreme territory, thereby defaulting the overall model to neutral, we will officially stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Tuesday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.