This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 28, 2006.
The SPX declined 0.97 point Friday to close at 1295.09 in the lowest-volume full-day session of the year. TOT daily traders went 400% short shortly after the opening and covered on the close. We are currently flat.
Over the past 26 weeks, TOT daily traders recommendations have been profitable 19 weeks and unprofitable 7 weeks. And over the past 26 weeks, TOT daily traders recommendations have outperformed the SPX 21 weeks and underperformed 5 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8961.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 836.16 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.72 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
On Friday, I said, “the market has the POTENTIAL for a serious selloff today if it gets an appropriate news catalyst.” Bottom line: There just wasn’t ANY news of any market importance! I also said, “Interestingly enough, whatever direction the market ends with today is likely to be reversed on Monday.” Well, “interestingly enough,” the market had NO direction on Friday. While the SPX and the DJII were marginally lower, the S&P and NASDAQ futures were marginally higher. The advance/decline ratios on both the NYSE and NASDAQ were positive, while the NYSE Index was lower. The NYSE 10 most active stocks were negative with only 3 up and 7 down, while the Value Line arithmetic index was slightly higher. As I said, “no direction.”
Today should see some direction – to the downside. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1295 stop or at SPX 1299 limit, whichever comes first. If the SPX advances to 1304, I’ll have an intraday update within ½ hour. Unless and until that occurs, hold any short position without a stop. Unless an intraday update advises otherwise, if still short on the close, carry your position overnight and into Tuesday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.