This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 21, 2006.
The SPX advanced 4.82 points Friday to close at 1302.30. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Last week was a disappointing one for TOT daily traders recommendations, losing 30 cumulative SPX points. That was a giveback of 94% of the previous week’s 31.77 point gain. Over the past 25 weeks, TOT daily traders recommendations have been profitable 19 times and unprofitable 6 times. And over the past 25 weeks, TOT daily traders recommendations have outperformed the SPX 20 times and underperformed 5 times.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8962.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 843.37 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.63 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral – indeed fairly solidly neutral at that. Of note is that my bond model is once again quite bullish. As you probably know, there have been times when a strong bond market has led to a strong stock market, and other times when a strong bond market has led to a weak stock market. Unfortunately right now, my bond-market-related indicators (which are components of the short term model) are giving no hint of which of those events the potentially strong bond market might be presaging for the stock market!
The daily model would be bearish today if the SPX were to move away from the 1300 level. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1306 limit or at SPX 1295 stop, whichever comes first. If neither level is reached, stand aside. If you go short, use a 10 point protective buy stop on the position. If you go short and are not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.