This is Turov on Timing for Monday, August 15, 2011.
The SPX advanced 6.17 points Friday to close at 1178.81. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session, and we are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12483.16 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 719.88 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 17.34 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The daily model is modestly bullish today, but overnight futures are already up ¾%, and the daily model’s signal is simply not strong enough to buy into that much strength – especially since any negative news could turn this market lower faster than a Brad Keselowski sprint.
I’d love to catch a big move in this volatile market, but the odds simply are not good enough today. Continue to stand aside. A sloppy advance today will likely lead to a shorting opportunity tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Tuesday’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.