The SPX advanced 3.11 points Friday to close at 2441.32. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2440 and have carried that position over the weekend and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17304.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1982.39 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.73 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.73 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
The daily model is bullish today, and the odds favor a continued advance, primarily in the morning. As I said on Friday, “I doubt anything substantive will happen over the weekend,” and nothing stock-market influential has. Expect a strong morning, although the balance of the day is less clear. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long. Raise the protective sell stop on that long position to SPX 2435. If the SPX advances to 2449, take your profit. If still long on the close, sell the position at that time. Also, simultaneous with any long sale, go 200% short at the market at that time (completely unrelated to the following paragraph).
POLITICAL COMMENT: As reported in the Washington Post, “President Donald Trump says he’s planning a press conference Monday in Washington— though it’s unclear what he plans to discuss. Trump has been out of Washington all week for an extended working vacation at his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf course. He’s set to return to Washington for a brief visit Monday. Trump tells reporters he has a ‘very important meeting’ scheduled along with a ‘pretty big’ press conference. But he’s sharing no other details.” The situation room is in the basement of the West Wing of the White House. Since staffers from the West Wing who stayed in Washington have been working at the Old Executive Office Building across the street from the White House, if the President goes to the White House, that “dump” as he has called it, it won’t be for sightseeing. And today, Monday, Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, is visiting South Korea with talks scheduled with the President of South Korea, the chairman of Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, the deputy commander of South Korean-U.S. Combined Forces Command and the head of Korea’s national security council. This does not seem like a three-martini lunch, although it certainly is possible that the purpose of the meeting is less than preparations for war (e.g., a discussion of the August 21-31 scheduled joint military exercises) In July, General Dunford said that it was “unimaginable” to allow North Korea to develop the capability to strike a U.S. city with a nuclear weapon. Tomorrow is North Korean Independence Day and anybody who is anybody there will be in Pyongyang. Hmm. Sort of like a Pearl Harbor in reverse opportunity to take out the North Korean leadership while we take out the missiles. Caveat: These are just my musings; I have no inside information, and I certainly do not welcome the prospect of a war that endangers the people of South Korea, Japan, or anywhere else.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.